domingo, 20 de setembro de 2020

Brexit, Sanctions to Iran (peer pressure) and the world as it is

 


European leaders warn US move to reimpose Iran sanctions is legally void

France, Germany and UK say Washington does not have the authority, setting up clash




https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/20/iran-says-us-move-to-reimpose-snapback-sanctions-is-a-false-claim




1) Iran's GDP: 454 billions USD (2017)


The EU is Iran's largest trading partner, along with China and the United Arab Emirates. Trade with Iran is subject to the general EU import regime and the EU supports the goal of Iranian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).




2) According to the graphic below http://www.bicc.org.uk/co-stats.html , UK was the largest consumer of Iran's goods in EU during the year of 2016 





Britain Seeks Ways to Continue Trading with Iran

By Jamie Dettmer

August 29, 2018 07:35 AM


https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/britain-seeks-ways-continue-trading-iran




British officials have been turning to Japan for tips on how to dodge American sanctions on Iran, according to local media.


Britain is already seeking from Washington exemptions from some U.S. sanctions, which are being re-imposed by President Donald Trump because of the U.S. withdrawal earlier this year from a controversial 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. The British are especially keen to maintain banking links with Iran and to import Iranian oil.




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MY OPINION:




BREXIT




What did it mean, after all?




Has UK left the EU for real on January 31st 2020?




Is President Donald Trump allowing and supporting UN pressure on UK's leaving the EU at the correct deadline, complying with the purpose of the whole process that the Brexit meant?



What did held back tears of Teresa May actually meant at the moment of resigning (the Parliament would lose sequence and logic without her rationale. And all of the conclusions she foresaw, for the best and for the worst, would - or would not - occur)?




Is the USA, brave and aware, observing UK to maintain economical bonds with other countries in EU and missing on Brexit's purpose?






CONCLUSION




UN must now work on the most expected Trade Agreements of all times: a Trade Agreement that benefits Iran and other country, or commercial group solely. I wouldn't consider this a Unilateral Agreement, because probably other countries from the Middle East would have to participate (United Arab Emirates). 

I think this was the purpose of Organizing the EU in the first place: giving European countries a possibility to buy oil straight from the Middle East without inserting those countries into a formal Trade Agreement (Unilateral or Bilateral); 

The production of  Enriched Uranium, which cannot become part of a growing market, and still: - Forecast on demand (rains, sunshine, etc), for example. Unfortunately, wars too are financed with this technology, but the countries that produce the Enriched Uranium (Iran for example), and the ones that manipulate technolgy for all purposes, good or negative (N. Korea, for example) get cornered and can't dwell with lack of all the basic for their population, not being inserted in any commercial Agreements, and they turn to terrorism to get what they need.



This Trade Agreement will not be from UK, neither from the remaining countries of EU, but from UN in the name of the formalization of a new Economic block in the Middle East - free and neutral from Enriched Uranium production, only countries that provides goods to all of the other countries in the area, and their commercial partners.




USA must participate in the negotiation (food supply/commodities, competing with China - maybe as a retaliation for the Trade War), mind if numbers drop when sellings of ammunition to the Middle East drop too, once their Economy is more stable due to new Agreements. In the G20 meeting in Argentina - 2018, China argued they didn't want a stiff competition in the technological field all the way. If they don't change this criteria, Brazil will then change destination of supplies to American harbours, when the UN brings together: United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Lebanon at one side and Jordan and Israel at the other side in two packs of Agreements that will diminish the supply of ammunition to Middle East, and organize distribution of oil in Europe, China, India, Japan and USA, in exchange of food from South America (Brazil) to the world as it is. China will continue to produce technology at its own rate, but will compensate the U.S.A with the food market, setting a conclusion to the Trade War. BRICS will still have a perspective at the joint Brazil - China, as Brazil buys hi-tech gadgets from China and China buys oil from Brazil (Petrobras), as well as Brazilian soy from U.S.A. 


 P.S>(The reason why Jamal Kashoggi was killed in Turkey is also a matter of discussion, if considering a possibility for a new Economical block in the Middle East.....- https://tarafatosefilosofia.blogspot.com/2020/09/brexit-sanctions-to-iran-peer-pressure.html  The countries that monopolize oil in the Middle East moving Turkey against Syria, may have seemed as an agressive way to assure that the war would continue, and that they would continue to have their Trade through the ammunition purchase. The Turkish conflict against the Kurdish happened three months after of the death of Jamal Kashoggi in Turkey: https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-turkey-and-armed-kurdish-groups) - https://tarafatosefilosofia.blogspot.com/2020/09/tiktok-editors-desk-and-linkedin.html  

What the news say about the current war Turkey vs Greece, is not the actual outcome.

The bbc.com says that Greece and Turkey have been competing over gas on the Eastern Mediterranean. My insights come to mind:

In the 50's, the USA wanted to sell cars and oil to China. Mao didn't have a revenue for that, so he mapped his country for bicycles. Along with the construction of Beijing, pipes were installed by foreign countries along the electricity facilities. Contaminated gas was injected in those pipes. China queried Russia, and both Communist countries made a deal: Russia provides natural gas to China's pipes and in exchange China gives a percentage of profit and products from Silk Route (goods from Middle East and Japan that China sells to Europe) - I believe this is the "gas on the Eastern Mediterranean" the international media is talking about.

Being Greece a Catholic Ortodox, and full of debt with the church in Russia - China's commercial partner - and being Turkey an strategic null move to the powerful countries in the Middle East, I believe as soon as the current conflict between Greece and Turkey has an end (Greece willing to gain percentage to Russia and to EU from oil after the Brexit and Turkey wishing to have part in a tangible Agreement), the two countries that now crave a naval battle, will bring along with the outcome of figures for a new Trade Agreement (the UN brings together: United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Lebanon at one side and Jordan and Israel at the other side in two packs of Agreements that will diminish the supply of ammunition to Middle East, and organize distribution of oil in Europe, China, India, Japan and USA, in exchange of food from South America (Brazil) to the world as it is) and the decision if having Turkey as a part of this Agreement is safe, or if the opposite gives vulnerability to the other Middle East countries to use Turkey at their own benefit at a new conflict, whenever they feel commercially unassisted.


Att,


Thaís Fernanda Ortiz de Moraes

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